Simple Bedside Predictors of Survival after Percutaneous Gastrostomy Tube Insertion

Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) tube insertion is an increasingly used minimally invasive method for long-term enteral feeding. Identification of simple predictors for short-term mortality (up to one month) after PEG insertion is of paramount importance.

We aimed to explore a simple noninvasive parameter that would predict survival following PEG insertion.

We performed a retrospective study of all patients who underwent PEG insertion at the Galilee Medical Center from January 1, 2014 to December 30, 2018. We collected simple clinical and laboratory parameters and survival data and looked for predictors of short-term mortality.

A total of 272 patients who underwent PEG insertion were included. Sixty-four patients (23.5%) died within one month after PEG insertion compared to 208 patients (76.5%) who survived for more than one month. Univariate analysis revealed several short-term mortality-related predictors, including older age (OR 1.1, P=0.005), ischemic heart disease (OR 2, P=0.0197), higher creatinine level (OR 2.3, P=0.0043), and elevated CRP level and CRP-to-albumin ratio (OR 1.1, P < 0.0001; OR 1.0031, P < 0.0001, respectively). In multivariate logistic analysis, older age (OR 1.1, P=0.019), higher creatinine level (OR 1.6, P=0.074), and elevated CRP-to-albumin ratio (OR 1.1, P=0.002) remained significant predictors of short-term mortality after PEG insertion with an ROC of 0.7274.

We could identify several simple parameters associated with high risk of mortality, and we recommend considering using these parameters in decision-making regarding PEG insertion. Further prospective studies are needed to validate our findings.