Bus passenger flow congestion risk evaluation model based on the Pressure-State-Response framework: A case study in...

Area of Science:

• Urban planning
• Transportation engineering
• Public transit systems

Background:

• Urban public transport is crucial for resident commutes.
• Unbalanced travel demand causes passenger flow congestion risks.
• Existing risk descriptions lack quantification.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a quantified risk evaluation model for urban bus passenger flow.
• To identify and categorize passenger flow congestion risk levels.
• To provide a basis for optimizing public transit network flow.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework.
• Developed three risk evaluation indexes: alternative pressure, congestion intensity, and transport efficiency.
• Applied the entropy method for model evaluation and K-means clustering for risk level classification.

Main Results:

• Weekday peak hour risks are approximately 1.5 times higher than weekend risks.
• Level 3 congestion risk is prevalent during most weekday morning peak hours.
• Level 4 risk duration is minimal (<0.1) on weekdays, indicating rapid evacuation.

Conclusions:

• An integrated passenger risk identification and evaluation model was proposed.
• The model aids in identifying passenger flow risk levels and promoting reasonable network flow distribution.
• The study offers technical support for enhancing public transit system safety.