Microcephaly infant mortality in Brazil before zika outbreak

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Pediatrics

Background:

• Microcephaly poses a significant public health challenge, particularly in infants.
• Understanding the epidemiology of microcephaly-related mortality is crucial for public health preparedness.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the temporal and spatial variations in infant mortality due to microcephaly in Brazil before the Zika virus outbreak.
• To identify regional disparities in microcephaly mortality trends and risk.

Main Methods:

• Utilized DATASUS data (1996-2013) to calculate infant mortality rate from microcephaly (IMR-M) at regional, state, and municipal levels.
• Employed Poisson regression for secular trend (ST) analysis and risk variation estimation.
• Applied Satscan software for spatial scan statistics to identify high-risk clusters.

Main Results:

• Infant mortality rate from microcephaly (IMR-M) exhibited a non-significant negative secular trend in the Southeast, South, and Central West regions.
• The North and Northeast regions demonstrated a greater risk variation and a positive secular trend for IMR-M.
• Six significant high-risk clusters were identified, with three in the North-Northeast and three in the South-SouthWest-Center-West areas.

Conclusions:

• The North and Northeast regions displayed higher mortality risk and positive trends for IMR-M, contrasting with other regions.
• The spatial distribution of high IMR-M risk clusters mirrored patterns observed during the Zika virus outbreak period.
• Findings highlight pre-existing regional vulnerabilities to microcephaly mortality in Brazil.