Cancer of the digestive system in Veracruz. The magnitude of the problem by 2025

Malignant tumors of the digestive system are a public health problem with epidemiologic variations attributed to factors resulting from the aging of the population and lifestyle changes. Therefore, estimating the future magnitude of the problem is prudent.

To determine the epidemiologic projection up to 2025 of malignant tumors of the digestive system in Veracruz.

A predictive, analytic, observational study was conducted on patients belonging to the Public health sector of Veracruz that presented with digestive system cancer, within the time frame of 2000-2016, carrying out a disease projection up to 2025. The IBM SPSS 22.0 program was utilized for the statistical analysis, employing simple linear regression. A comparative analysis of the data was carried out and results are shown in scatter graphs.

A total of 2,540 cases were included in the study. Mean patient age was 63.25±13.43, with a predominance of men at 56.65%. The most frequent tumor locations were in the colon and rectum (25.04%), liver (23.66%), and stomach (21.93%). Less frequent sites were the esophagus (4.88%) and small bowel (5.08%). A general 7.63% increase in the disease was predicted for 2025, with increases to 11.51% for esophageal cancer, 7.22% for gastric cancer, 9.09% for colorectal cancer, 5.98% for liver cancer, 7.88% for pancreatic cancer, and 6.86% for cancer of the gallbladder and bile ducts. Only cancer of the small bowel showed a predicted decrease to 3.33%.

The results of the present study predict that digestive system cancers in Veracruz will increase importantly by 2025, with colorectal cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, and gastric cancer as the most frequent tumors, in descending order. The other cancers are estimated to maintain a discrete line of growth. In addition to predicting the behavior of those cancers, the results of the present study are useful for estimating the resources that will be needed for their care by 2025.