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Do higher fuel prices help reduce road traffic accidents?
Nadia K Naqvi1, Mohammed A Quddus1, Marcus P Enoch1
1Transport Studies Group, School of Architecture, Building and Civil Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU, UK.
Accident; Analysis and Prevention
|December 16, 2019
Summary
Higher fuel prices significantly reduce fatal road traffic accidents. A 1% fuel price increase correlates with a 0.4% decrease in fatal crashes, impacting travel behavior.
Area of Science:
- Transportation Safety
- Environmental Economics
- Public Health
Background:
- Road traffic accidents have declined globally due to safety improvements.
- Fuel price fluctuations are increasingly recognized as a factor influencing road safety.
- Limited research exists on fuel price impacts in countries with high, policy-driven fuel costs, like Great Britain.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the relationship between fuel price changes and road traffic accident frequency in Great Britain.
- To investigate how altered travel behavior mediates the effect of fuel prices on accident rates.
Main Methods:
- Utilized weekly fuel price data from 2005-2015.
- Employed Prais-Winsten (AR1) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models for analysis.
- Examined the impact of fuel price on road traffic accident frequency.
Main Results:
- A 1% increase in fuel price was associated with a 0.4% reduction in fatal road traffic accidents.
- Evidence suggests changes in travel behavior are a key mediating factor.
Conclusions:
- Fuel price is a significant determinant of fatal road traffic accident reduction.
- Future UK policies phasing out petrol and diesel vehicles require careful consideration to mitigate potential increases in fatal accidents.
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