A Multilevel Analysis of Surgical Category and Individual Patient-Level Risk Factors for Postoperative Stroke

Many studies supporting the association between specific surgical procedure categories and postoperative stroke (POS) do not account for differences in patient-level characteristics between and within surgical categories. The risk of POS after high-risk procedure categories remains unknown after adjusting for such differences in patient-level characteristics.

Using inpatients in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Initiative Program database, we conducted a retrospective cohort study between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2010. Our primary outcome was POS within 30 days of surgery. We characterized the relationship between surgical- and individual patient-level factors and POS by using multivariable, multilevel logistic regression that accounted for clustering of patient-level factors with surgical categories.

We identified 729 886 patients, 2703 (0.3%) of whom developed POS. Dependent functional status (odds ratio [OR]: 4.11, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 3.60-4.69), history of stroke (OR: 2.35, 95%CI: 2.06-2.69) or transient ischemic attack (OR: 2.49 95%CI: 2.19-2.83), active smoking (OR: 1.20, 95%CI: 1.08-1.32), hypertension (OR: 2.11, 95%CI: 2.19-2.82), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR: 1.39 95%CI: 1.21-1.59), and acute renal failure (OR: 2.35, 95%CI: 1.85-2.99) were significantly associated with POS. After adjusting for clustering, patients who underwent cardiac (OR: 11.25, 95%CI: 8.52-14.87), vascular (OR: 4.75, 95%CI: 3.88-5.82), neurological (OR: 4.60, 95%CI: 3.48-6.08), and general surgery (OR: 1.40, 95%CI: 1.15-1.70) had significantly greater odds of POS compared to patients undergoing other types of surgical procedures.

Vascular, cardiac, and neurological surgery remained strongly associated with POS in an analysis accounting for the association between patient-level factors and surgical categories.