Plant profit maximization improves predictions of European forest responses to drought

Knowledge of how water stress impacts the carbon and water cycles is a key uncertainty in terrestrial biosphere models. We tested a new profit maximization model, where photosynthetic uptake of CO₂ is optimally traded against plant hydraulic function, as an alternative to the empirical functions commonly used in models to regulate gas exchange during periods of water stress. We conducted a multi-site evaluation of this model at the ecosystem scale, before and during major droughts in Europe. Additionally, we asked whether the maximum hydraulic conductance in the soil-plant continuum k_max (a key model parameter which is not commonly measured) could be predicted from long-term site climate. Compared with a control model with an empirical soil moisture function, the profit maximization model improved the simulation of evapotranspiration during the growing season, reducing the normalized mean square error by c. 63%, across mesic and xeric sites. We also showed that k_max could be estimated from long-term climate, with improvements in the simulation of evapotranspiration at eight out of the 10 forest sites during drought. Although the generalization of this approach is contingent upon determining k_max , it presents a mechanistic trait-based alternative to regulate canopy gas exchange in global models.