Predicting hemorrhagic transformation and its timing from maximum cerebral lesion diameter in nonlacunar ischemic...

We performed this retrospective cohort study to establish which factors are mostly indicative of the appearance of hemorrhagic transformation (HT) and of its time course in a sample of nonlacunar ischemic strokes.

In 402 patients with nonlacunar ischemic stroke (75.0 ± 12.7 years, 192 male), clinical, laboratory, and neuroimaging variables obtained during the first 3 days of hospitalization were compared between patients with and without HT at computer tomography scan.

HT was documented in 129 patients (32.1%), including 36 with parenchymal hematoma (PH), after a median time of 6 days (range 1-27). Many variables were univariately associated with HT, but only 5 of them were confirmed in Cox regression (Hazard Ratio, 95% Confidence Interval): maximum cerebral lesion diameter (CLD) in cm (1.12, 1.06-1.18; p = .0001), hemoglobin in g/dl (1.16, 1.06-1.27; p = .002), blood glucose in mmol/L (1.10, 1.03-1.18; p = .007), prior anticoagulant therapy (1.82, 1.10-3.03; p = .02), and edema with mass effect (1.72, 1.08-2.75; p = .02). Thus, the most significant predictor was CLD. The overall risk of HT was minimum for CLD < 2 cm (1.5%), intermediate for CLD ≥ 2 and < 5 cm (22%), and maximum for CLD ≥ 5 cm (58%). The residual probability of having HT decreased progressively over time, and a simple formula is proposed to predict, from CLD in cm, when the probability of HT falls below 10%.

The main determinant of HT was CLD, a simple quantitative parameter that could prove useful, in particular, in deciding the timing of anticoagulation in cardioembolic stroke patients.