A causal relationship between cigarette smoking and type 2 diabetes mellitus: A Mendelian randomization study

The causality between smoking and type 2 diabetes is unclear. We conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization study to explore the causal relationship between smoking initiation and type 2 diabetes. Summary-level data for type 2 diabetes were obtained from a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies (DIAbetes Genetics Replication And Meta-analysis consortium), which included 898 130 individuals of European ancestry. Totally, 377 single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with smoking initiation at genome wide significance threshold (p < 5 × 10^-8) were identified from the hitherto largest genome-wide association study on smoking. The inverse-variance weighted, weighted median, MR-Egger regression, and MR-PRESSO approaches were used to analyze the data. Genetically predicted smoking initiation was associated with type 2 diabetes with an odds ratio of 1.28 (95% confidence interval, 1.20, 1.37; p = 2.35 × 10^-12). Results were consistent across sensitivity analyses and there was no evidence of horizontal pleiotropy. This study provides genetic evidence supporting a causal association between the smoking initiation and type 2 diabetes. Reducing cigarette smoking initiation can now be even more strongly recommended for type 2 diabetes prevention.