A 450 million years long latitudinal gradient in age-dependent extinction

Area of Science:

• Paleontology
• Macroevolution
• Deep Learning Applications in Biology

Background:

• The 'law of constant extinction' posits that extinction probability is independent of species age under stable environmental conditions.
• Previous analyses of extinction patterns have often overlooked the influence of species age on extinction risk.
• A novel deep learning approach was employed to analyze age-dependent extinction rates.

Discussion:

• The study analyzed 450 million years of marine invertebrate data across 21 clades.
• Extinction rates were found to significantly decrease with species age in over 90% of analyzed cases.
• This indicates a higher extinction risk for younger species, with diminishing risk for older, established species.

Key Insights:

• Contrary to the law of constant extinction, species age is a significant factor in extinction probability.
• The observed age-dependent extinction pattern is more pronounced in tropical regions.
• Mass extinctions and taxonomic inflation effects were controlled for, reinforcing the age-dependency findings.

Outlook:

• The findings suggest that biological interactions intensify towards the tropics, influencing age-dependent extinction.
• The latitudinal diversity gradient and species-level selection are proposed as key drivers of this macroevolutionary pattern.
• Further research can explore the specific biological mechanisms behind age-dependent extinction and latitudinal gradients.