A cohort study to assess the incidence of dengue, Brazil, 2014-2018

The present cohort study was set up with the aim of determining the incidence of dengue among children and adolescents, from 2 to 16 years of age, living in Araraquara, South-Eastern Brazil, a city classified as a mid-level endemicity location for dengue. Enrollment took place from September 2014 to March 2015. Baseline socio-demographic data were collected, and a blood sample from the participant was drawn, for dengue serology. Families were contacted weekly for fever surveillance. If the child developed fever, a nurse visited the household to collect a blood sample. PCR, NS1 and IgM were used for dengue diagnosis. Parents or legal guardians of participating children provided a written informed consent. 3,514 children and adolescents were enrolled in the cohort. Dengue baseline seroprevalence was 12.2% (95%CI: 11.1 - 13.3). The incidence density of symptomatic dengue was 8.94 per 100 person/years in the first year of follow-up, 0.58 in the second, and 0.19 in the fourth. No cases were confirmed in the third year. Incidence was associated with age, sex, baseline seroprevalence and with living in a house as opposed to an apartment. This study provides relevant information on the epidemiology of dengue in mid-level transmission settings that may be useful to policymakers in the evaluation of control strategies.