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Updated: Jan 1, 2026

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Yield Gaps in Wheat: Path to Enhancing Productivity.

Jerry L Hatfield1, Brian L Beres2

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|December 24, 2019
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Global wheat production needs a significant boost to feed a growing population. Closing the yield gap, primarily limited by weather, requires climate-resilient farming practices.

Keywords:
gap analysesweatherwheat productionyieldyield gap

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Crop Production
  • Food Security

Background:

  • Global population growth necessitates increased food supply, with wheat production needing to rise by 1 billion metric tons.
  • Reducing the gap between actual and attainable wheat yields is crucial for meeting future demand.
  • Attainable yield, representing unconstrained production, is a more realistic benchmark than potential yield.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate yield trends, attainable yields, and yield gaps in the 10 largest wheat-producing countries.
  • To analyze localized wheat yield statistics at state or county levels.
  • To identify factors limiting wheat production and inform strategies for increasing yields.

Main Methods:

  • Assembled wheat yield data from government sources for major producing countries and localized regions.
  • Determined attainable yields using upper quantile analysis to establish the yield frontier.
  • Calculated annual yield gaps as the difference between attainable and actual yields, expressed as a percentage.

Main Results:

  • Attainable wheat yields have increased over time, exceeding overall yield trends due to advances in genetics and agronomy.
  • Yield gaps have not decreased, indicating that seasonal weather variability remains the primary constraint on wheat production.
  • Technological progress is enhancing attainable yields, but climate impacts hinder actual yield improvements.

Conclusions:

  • Closing the wheat yield gap necessitates the adoption of climate-resilient practices by local producers.
  • Strategies must address the impact of weather variability to improve wheat production systems.
  • Continued innovation in genetics and agronomy is vital, but must be complemented by adaptation to climate challenges.