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Spatial Population Structure Determines Extinction Risk in Climate-Induced Range Shifts.

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    Climate change poses risks to populations. Increased spatial structure within a population

    Keywords:
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    Area of Science:

    • Ecology
    • Evolutionary Biology
    • Climate Change Biology

    Background:

    • Climate change necessitates understanding population responses.
    • Population responses are influenced by spatial structure within their ranges.
    • Spatial structure may interact with ecological and evolutionary processes during range shifts.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To explore interacting factors in climate-induced range shift dynamics.
    • To investigate the role of spatial population structure in range shifts.
    • To examine the interplay between dispersal evolution and adaptation.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilized an individual-based model.
    • Simulated range shift dynamics under varying spatial structures.
    • Analyzed the effects of environmental gradients and dispersal evolution.

    Main Results:

    • Increased spatial population structure, especially with steep environmental gradients, significantly elevates extinction risk.
    • Dispersal evolution can aid range tracking but may negatively interact with adaptation.
    • This interaction leads to reduced fitness and increased extinction risk in structured populations.

    Conclusions:

    • Spatial population structure substantially increases extinction risk during climate-induced range shifts.
    • The impact of dispersal evolution on range-shifting populations is context-dependent.
    • Understanding spatial structure is crucial for predicting population persistence under climate change.