Development and use of an adjusted nurse staffing metric in the neonatal intensive care unit

To develop a nurse staffing prediction model and evaluate deviation from predicted nurse staffing as a contributor to patient outcomes.

Secondary data collection conducted 2017-2018, using the California Office of Statewide Health Planning and Development and the California Perinatal Quality Care Collaborative databases. We included 276 054 infants born 2008-2016 and cared for in 99 California neonatal intensive care units (NICUs).

Repeated-measures observational study. We developed a nurse staffing prediction model using machine learning and hierarchical linear regression and then quantified deviation from predicted nurse staffing in relation to health care-associated infections, length of stay, and mortality using hierarchical logistic and linear regression.

We linked NICU-level nurse staffing and organizational data to patient-level risk factors and outcomes using unique identifiers for NICUs and patients.

An 11-factor prediction model explained 35 percent of the nurse staffing variation among NICUs. Higher-than-predicted nurse staffing was associated with decreased risk-adjusted odds of health care-associated infection (OR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.63-0.98), but not with length of stay or mortality.

Organizational and patient factors explain much of the variation in nurse staffing. Higher-than-predicted nurse staffing was associated with fewer infections. Prospective studies are needed to determine causality and to quantify the impact of staffing reforms on health outcomes.