The joint prediction model of pBMI and eFBG in predicting gestational diabetes mellitus

To explore the predictive value of prepregnancy body mass index (pBMI) and early gestational fasting blood glucose (eFBG) in gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

This case-control study enrolled pregnant women at 6 to 16 weeks of gestation. The pBMI, eFBG and glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA_1c) was recorded in the first trimester of pregnancy. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to measure the efficacy of factors that predict GDM.

A total of 2119 pregnant women were enrolled in this study. Of these, 386 were diagnosed with GDM and 1733 did not have GDM. The age (odds ratio [OR] 1.16; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.13, 1.20), pBMI (OR 1.12; 95% CI 1.07, 1.17) and eFBG (OR 5.37; 95% CI 3.93, 7.34) were independent risk factors for GDM occurrence. The areas under the ROC curve of eFBG, pBMI and eFBG + pBMI were 0.68 (95% credibility interval 0.65, 0.71), 0.66 (95% credibility interval 0.63, 0.69) and 0.71 (95% credibility interval 0.69, 0.74), respectively. The area under the curve of eFBG + pBMI was significantly higher than that of eFBG or pBMI alone.

The combination of eFBG and pBMI had a high predictive value for GDM.