Direct Radiative Effect and Public Health Implications of Aerosol Emissions Associated with Shifting to Gasoline...

Due to their enhanced fuel economy, the market share of gasoline direct injection (GDI) vehicles has increased significantly over the past decade. However, GDI engines emit higher levels of black carbon (BC) aerosols compared to traditional port fuel injection (PFI) engines. Here, we performed coupled chemical transport and radiative transfer simulations to estimate the aerosol-induced public health and direct radiative effects of shifting the U.S. fleet from PFI to GDI technology. By comparing simulations with current emission profiles and emission profiles modified to reflect a shift from PFI to GDI, we calculated the change in aerosol (mostly BC) concentrations associated with the fleet change. Standard concentration-response calculations indicated that the total annual deaths in the U.S. attributed to particulate gasoline-vehicle emissions would increase from 855 to 1599 due to shifting from PFI to GDI. Furthermore, the increase in BC associated with the shift would lead to an annual average positive radiative effect over the U.S. of approximately +0.075 W/m², with values as large as +0.45 W/m² over urban regions. On the other hand, the reduction in CO₂ emissions associated with the enhanced fuel economy of GDI vehicles would yield a globally uniform negative radiative effect, estimated to be -0.013 W/m² over a 20 year time horizon. Therefore, the climate burden of the increase in BC emissions dominates over the U.S., especially over source regions.