Phosphorus loss assessment tools: a review of underlying concepts and applicability in cold climates

Identifying critical source areas (CSAs) of a watershed by phosphorus (P) loss assessment tools is essential for optimal placement of beneficial management practices (BMPs) to address diffuse P pollution. However, lack of significant progress in tackling diffuse P pollution could be, in part, associated with inefficacy of P loss assessment tools for accurately identifying CSAs. Phosphorus loss assessment tools have been developed to simulate P loss from the landscape where runoff is mainly driven by rainfall events. Therefore, they may underperform in cold climates where the land is often frozen during winter and runoff is dominated by snowmelt. This paper (i) reviews the strengths and weaknesses of current P loss assessment tools and their underlying assumptions in simulating soil P dynamics and P transfer to runoff, and (ii) highlights a number of challenges associated with modeling P transfer from agricultural land to surface waters in cold climates. Current P loss assessment tools do not appear to fully represent hydrological and biogeochemical processes responsible for P loss from CSAs, particularly in cold climates. Effort should be made to develop P loss assessment tools that are capable of considering P dynamics through the landscape as a result of abiotic perturbations that are common in cold climates, predicting runoff and P movement over frozen/partially frozen soils, and considering material-P connectivity between landscape and surface waters. Evaluating P loss assessment tools with water quality data is necessary to ensure such modifications result in improved identification of CSAs.