An e-Delphi study generates expert consensus on the trends in future continuing medical education engagement by...

Background: The Delphi method is a demonstrated way to gather structured expert opinions to forecast, plan, and prioritize around a given topic. It builds consensus through iterative rounds.Aims: The goal of this study was to build consensus-based predictions for the year 2022 about: future trends in surgeon continuing medical education (CME); the role of technology in learning for surgeons of different experience levels (trainee/resident, practicing, expert); and CME funding models.Methods: A three round e-Delphi method was employed for this study. Panelist identities were anonymized, and controlled feedback and consensus rules were employed. Fifteen international expert panelists' input was collected via electronically distributed, open-ended questionnaire (Round 1) and 5-point Likert scale ranking surveys (Rounds 2 and 3), in a series of nine questions (Round 1) and 26 and 25 summary statements (Rounds 2 and 3, respectively). Summary statements were collated via key words and ideas collected from panelist's input. Mean, median, standard deviation, and 95% confidence intervals were calculated.Results: Response rate was 100% for each round. Consensus in Round 2 was 61% and 88% in Round 3. Seven key finding statements with supporting background information was the result.Discussion: Reliable, affordable internet access was identified as a likely barrier to education for certain regions, even in 5 years' time. The use of similar educational resources were identified for all levels of surgeon, what varied was the reliance on a particular resource by each level of surgeon.Conclusion: Institutes of employment were predicted to have ended CME funding for expert surgeons by 2022. Industry sponsored CME was predicted to have a continued role for trainee/residents and practicing surgeons.