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A nomogram for predicting the in-hospital mortality after large hemispheric infarction
Wenzhe Sun1, Guo Li1, Ziqiang Liu2
1Department of Neurology, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, No.1095 Jiefang Avenue, Wuhan, 430030, China.
BMC Neurology
|December 31, 2019
Summary
Age, midline shift, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio predict in-hospital death in large hemispheric infarction patients treated conservatively. A nomogram incorporating these factors offers a precise prognostic tool.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Internal Medicine
- Critical Care
Background:
- Large hemispheric infarction (LHI) is a severe stroke type with significant mortality and disability.
- Conservative management without decompressive hemicraniectomy is a treatment option for LHI patients.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify predictive indicators of in-hospital mortality in LHI patients managed conservatively.
- To develop a nomogram for predicting the risk of in-hospital death in individual LHI patients.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective study of 187 LHI patients (Jan 2016 - May 2019).
- Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves evaluated demographic, biomarker, and radiologic factors.
- Multivariate logistic regression and nomogram construction for prognosis prediction.
Main Results:
- 158 patients enrolled; 58 died.
- Independent predictors of in-hospital mortality identified: age (aOR=1.066), midline shift (MLS, aOR=1.330), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR, aOR=3.319).
- NLR demonstrated superior predictive performance over WBC and neutrophil counts. Nomogram achieved an AUC of 0.858.
Conclusions:
- Age, admission NLR, and MLS are independent predictors of in-hospital mortality in conservatively treated LHI patients.
- A nomogram integrating these factors serves as a precise and convenient prognostic tool for LHI.

