An Integrated Approach for Modeling Sustainability Risks in Freight Transportation Systems

Area of Science:

• Operational Research
• Sustainability Science
• Transportation Engineering

Background:

• Integrating sustainability into freight transportation systems (FTSs) faces numerous risks disrupting economic, social, and environmental goals.
• Sustainability risk management in FTSs is an underdeveloped area within operational research.
• Existing models often suffer from imprecise results due to average scoring methods.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify and classify sustainability risks in FTSs.
• To develop a novel framework for managing these risks using ontological and epistemological perspectives.
• To quantitatively model and profile sustainability risks for various risk preferences.

Main Methods:

• Identification and classification of 36 sustainability risks into seven categories.
• Development of a novel risk management framework for FTSs.
• Integration of fuzzy evidential reasoning algorithm (FERA) with expected utility theory for quantitative risk modeling, utilizing Dempster-Shafer theory for evidence aggregation.

Main Results:

• A rigorous classification of 36 sustainability risks within FTSs.
• A novel framework for managing sustainability risks, incorporating ontological and epistemological viewpoints.
• Quantitative risk profiling under different risk preferences (risk-averse, risk-neutral, risk-taking) using the proposed FERA model.
• Sensitivity analysis confirming the robustness of the FERA model.

Conclusions:

• Sustainability risks in FTSs are predominantly behaviorally and socially induced, contrary to financial concerns.
• Effective risk management in FTSs requires a focus on skills development and social/behavioral dimensions.
• The proposed FERA model offers a flexible and robust approach to sustainability risk assessment in FTSs.