Bayesian smoothed small-areas analysis of urban inequalities in fertility across 1999-2013

Since the 2008 economic crisis in Spain, overall fertility has continued to decrease, while urban inequalities have increased. There is a general lack of studies of fertility patterns in small-areas of Spanish cities. We explored the effects of the economic crisis on fertility during three time periods in urban settings in Spain.

We studied the distribution of fertility rates among women (15-49 years) from Spain and low-middle income countries (LIC) who were living in 13 Spanish cities. We mapped fertility and the MEDEA socioeconomic deprivation index in small-areas, and analyzed age-related trends in fertility rates. We performed an ecological regression analysis of fertility and the deprivation index in two pre-crisis periods (1999-2003 and 2004-2008) and one crisis period (2009-2013). Fertility rates were calculated and smoothed using the hierarchical Bayesian model (BYM).

Higher fertility was generally associated with socioeconomic deprivation, with adjustment for the mothers' age and nationality. While Spanish citizens tended to delay childbearing throughout the three study periods, fertility increased among Spanish adolescents from deprived urban areas during the economic crisis. There was a general decline in fertility among immigrants after the crisis, especially in southern cities. Overall, fertility appeared to be stable, with higher fertility in more deprived areas.

Increased unemployment and changes to government family policies may have contributed to delayed childbearing in Spain. For immigrants, more restrictive immigration policies may have played a crucial role in decreasing fertility rates. Reforming such policies will be key for better reproductive rights and improved fertility rates across all population cohorts in Spain.