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The Temporal (In)Stability of the Unemployment and Crime Relationship

Olivia K Ha1, Martin A Andresen2, Garth Davies1

  • 1Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada.

International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology
|January 7, 2020
PubMed

Keywords:
crimedecomposition modelpanel datatemporal stabilityunemployment

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Correlation means that there is a relationship between two or more variables (such as ice cream consumption and crime), but this relationship does not necessarily imply cause and effect. When two variables are correlated, it simply means that as one variable changes, so does the other. We can measure correlation by calculating a statistic known as a correlation coefficient. A correlation coefficient is a number from -1 to +1 that indicates the strength and direction of the relationship between...
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While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. For instance, as sales in ice cream increase, so does the overall rate of crime. Is it possible that indulging in your favorite flavor of ice cream could send you on a crime spree? Or, after committing crime do you think you might decide to treat yourself to a cone?
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The vertical distance between the actual value of y and the estimated value of y. In other words, it measures the vertical distance between the actual data point and the predicted point on the line
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