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Projected climate changes are expected to decrease the suitability and production of olive varieties in southern

Salvador Arenas-Castro1, João F Gonçalves2, Manuel Moreno3

  • 1CICGE - Centro de Investigação em Ciências Geo-Espaciais, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade do Porto, Observatório Astronómico "Prof. Manuel de Barros", Alameda do Monte da Virgem, 4430-146 Vila Nova de Gaia, Portugal; Área de Ecología, Dpto. de Botánica, Ecología y Fisiología Vegetal, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Córdoba, Campus de Rabanales, 14071 Córdoba, Spain.

The Science of the Total Environment
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Climate change threatens olive production in Andalusia. Projections show reduced suitable land and lower yields for key olive varieties due to changing climate conditions and water availability.

Keywords:
Climate changeDroughtEnvironmental suitabilityOlive productionOlive treeSpecies distribution models

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Area of Science:

  • Agricultural Science
  • Environmental Science
  • Climate Change Impact Studies

Background:

  • Olive cultivation is vital to Mediterranean economies, particularly in Andalusia.
  • Abiotic factors significantly influence olive variety performance and distribution.
  • Climate change poses a substantial threat to olive agroecosystems and production levels.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify key abiotic factors for current olive cultivation locations.
  • To predict current and future distribution of olive varieties under climate change scenarios.
  • To analyze the impact of climate change on olive production in Andalusia.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Species Distribution Models (SDMs) for seven major Andalusian olive varieties and wild olive.
  • Integrated fine-scale data on soil properties, geomorphology, water balance, and bioclimatic predictors.
  • Applied regional climate change projections to assess future environmental suitability and productivity.

Main Results:

  • Soil pH emerged as a critical factor for most distribution models.
  • Bioclimatic predictors like continentality, precipitation (summer/autumn), and winter temperature were significant.
  • Climate change scenarios predict a decrease in suitable land for olive crops in Andalusia, with reduced precipitation and increased evapotranspiration.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change is projected to decrease the area suitable for olive cultivation in Andalusia.
  • Annual olive production is expected to decline across most investigated provinces.
  • Findings provide a basis for developing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on olive farming.