Related Experiment Video
Updated: Dec 31, 2025

Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems
Published on: June 30, 2020
Forecasted attribution of the human influence on Hurricane Florence
K A Reed1, A M Stansfield1, M F Wehner2
1School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, USA.
Abstract:
Changes in extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones, are one of the most serious ways society experiences the impact of climate change. Advance forecasted conditional attribution statements, using a numerical model, were made about the anthropogenic climate change influence on an individual tropical cyclone, Hurricane Florence. Mean total overland rainfall amounts associated with the forecasted storm's core were increased by 4.9 ± 4.6% with local maximum amounts experiencing increases of 3.8 ± 5.7% due to climate change. A slight increase in the forecasted storm size of 1 to 2% was also attributed. This work reviews our forecasted attribution statement with the benefit of hindsight, demonstrating credibility of advance attribution statements for tropical cyclones.
Related Concept Videos
Fundamental Attribution Error
Responses to Drought and Flooding
Personal Choice and Fate Attributions
Global Climate Change
Attribution
Theory of Attribution II: Kelley's Covariation Theory

