Turbid reefs moderate coral bleaching under climate-related temperature stress

Thermal-stress events that cause coral bleaching and mortality have recently increased in frequency and severity. Yet few studies have explored conditions that moderate coral bleaching. Given that high light and high ocean temperature together cause coral bleaching, we explore whether corals at turbid localities, with reduced light, are less likely to bleach during thermal-stress events than corals at other localities. We analyzed coral bleaching, temperature, and turbidity data from 3,694 sites worldwide with a Bayesian model and found that K_d 490, a measurement positively related to turbidity, between 0.080 and 0.127 reduced coral bleaching during thermal-stress events. Approximately 12% of the world's reefs exist within this "moderating turbidity" range, and 30% of reefs that have moderating turbidity are in the Coral Triangle. We suggest that these turbid nearshore environments may provide some refuge through climate change, but these reefs will need high conservation status to sustain them close to dense human populations.