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Antitrust analysis with upward pricing pressure and cost efficiencies.

Jéssica Dutra¹, Tarun Sabarwal²

¹Economists Incorporated, Washington, DC, United States of America.

|January 9, 2020

Summary

This study enhances the Unilateral Effects (UPP) model for antitrust analysis by incorporating cost efficiencies from horizontal mergers. New UPP formulations significantly improve merger screening accuracy and post-merger price predictions.

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Area of Science:

Economics
Antitrust Law
Industrial Organization

Background:

The Unilateral Effects (UPP) model is a key tool in antitrust analysis.
Standard UPP formulations may not fully capture the impact of cost efficiencies in horizontal mergers.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and evaluate enhanced UPP formulations that account for merger-specific cost efficiencies.
To assess the impact of these new formulations on the accuracy of antitrust analysis.

Main Methods:

Extended the standard UPP formulation to incorporate cost efficiencies.
Utilized Monte Carlo simulations of 40,000 hypothetical horizontal mergers across 8 scenarios.
Analyzed prediction accuracy for post-merger prices and merger screening effectiveness.

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Main Results:

New UPP formulations demonstrated substantial gains in predicting post-merger prices.
Significant improvements in merger screening accuracy were observed with the enhanced models.
The revised UPP formulations outperformed the standard UPP, particularly at higher thresholds.

Conclusions:

Incorporating cost efficiencies into UPP models, guided by theoretical frameworks, significantly enhances their accuracy for antitrust analysis.
The developed UPP formulations offer a more robust tool for evaluating horizontal mergers.