The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia.

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Science
• Forestry

Background:

• Wildfires, intensified by extreme weather and land use, risk transforming the Amazon rainforest from a carbon sink to a source.
• Greenhouse gas emissions contribute to drying and warming, significantly impacting Amazonian fire regimes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the effects of greenhouse gas-driven climate change on wildfires and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon.
• To project future fire impacts under different emission scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Development and application of a coupled ecosystem-fire model.
• Utilizing regional climate projections for future scenarios.

Main Results:

• Projected climatic changes are expected to double the area burned by wildfires, potentially impacting 16% of the Amazon's forests by 2050.
• Wildfires under these scenarios could release up to 17.0 petagrams (Pg) of CO2 equivalent.
• Avoiding new deforestation could reduce total net fire emissions by 50%.

Conclusions:

• Intensified fire regimes are a significant threat to the Amazon under projected climate change.
• Mitigation strategies, including halting deforestation and active wildfire suppression, are crucial for forest conservation.
• Conservation efforts are vital to prevent fires from spreading into protected areas and indigenous territories.