Hidden Aspects of the Research ADOS Are Bound to Affect Autism Science

The research-grade Autism Diagnostic Observational Schedule (ADOS) is a broadly used instrument that informs and steers much of the science of autism. Despite its broad use, little is known about the empirical variability inherently present in the scores of the ADOS scale or their appropriateness to define change and its rate, to repeatedly use this test to characterize neurodevelopmental trajectories. Here we examine the empirical distributions of research-grade ADOS scores from 1324 records in a cross-section of the population comprising participants with autism between five and 65 years of age. We find that these empirical distributions violate the theoretical requirements of normality and homogeneous variance, essential for independence between bias and sensitivity. Further, we assess a subset of 52 typical controls versus those with autism and find a lack of proper elements to characterize neurodevelopmental trajectories in a coping nervous system changing at nonuniform, nonlinear rates. Repeating the assessments over four visits in a subset of the participants with autism for whom verbal criteria retained the same appropriate ADOS modules over the time span of the four visits reveals that switching the clinician changes the cutoff scores and consequently influences the diagnosis, despite maintaining fidelity in the same test's modules, room conditions, and tasks' fluidity per visit. Given the changes in probability distribution shape and dispersion of these ADOS scores, the lack of appropriate metric spaces to define similarity measures to characterize change and the impact that these elements have on sensitivity-bias codependencies and on longitudinal tracking of autism, we invite a discussion on readjusting the use of this test for scientific purposes.