Dynamic readmission prediction using routine postoperative laboratory results after radical cystectomy

To determine if the addition of electronic health record data enables better risk stratification and readmission prediction after radical cystectomy. Despite efforts to reduce their frequency and severity, complications and readmissions following radical cystectomy remain common. Leveraging readily available, dynamic information such as laboratory results may allow for improved prediction and targeted interventions for patients at risk of readmission.

We used an institutional electronic medical records database to obtain demographic, clinical, and laboratory data for patients undergoing radical cystectomy. We characterized the trajectory of common postoperative laboratory values during the index hospital stay using support vector machine learning techniques. We compared models with and without laboratory results to assess predictive ability for readmission.

Among 996 patients who underwent radical cystectomy, 259 patients (26%) experienced a readmission within 30 days. During the first week after surgery, median daily values for white blood cell count, urea nitrogen, bicarbonate, and creatinine differentiated readmitted and nonreadmitted patients. Inclusion of laboratory results greatly increased the ability of models to predict 30-day readmissions after cystectomy.

Common postoperative laboratory values may have discriminatory power to help identify patients at higher risk of readmission after radical cystectomy. Dynamic sources of physiological data such as laboratory values could enable more accurate identification and targeting of patients at greatest readmission risk after cystectomy. This is a proof of concept study that suggests further exploration of these techniques is warranted.