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Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing Earth's climate by 2050
Ilona M Otto1, Jonathan F Donges1,2, Roger Cremades3
1Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; ilona.otto@pik-potsdam.de donges@pik-potsdam.de john@pik-potsdam.de.
Summary
Achieving climate goals requires rapid societal transformation. Social tipping interventions (STIs) can accelerate this by activating contagious changes in energy, cities, finance, norms, education, and information systems.
Area of Science:
- Socio-environmental systems analysis
- Climate change mitigation strategies
- Sustainability science
Background:
- The Paris Climate Agreement necessitates global carbon neutrality within 30 years.
- Urgent technological and policy advancements are crucial to prevent dangerous climate tipping points.
- Social tipping interventions (STIs) offer a framework for rapid, widespread change.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the potential of social tipping interventions (STIs) for accelerating climate change mitigation.
- To identify key social tipping elements (STEs) within the socioeconomic system.
- To explore STIs that can trigger transformative changes for emissions reduction.
Main Methods:
- Online expert elicitation and a subsequent expert workshop.
- Comprehensive literature review on social tipping dynamics.
- Analysis of STIs across six identified social tipping elements (STE).
Main Results:
- Six key STIs were identified: fossil-fuel subsidy reform and decentralized energy (STE1), carbon-neutral cities (STE2), fossil-fuel divestment (STE3), highlighting moral implications of fossil fuels (STE4), enhanced climate education (STE5), and emissions information disclosure (STE6).
- These interventions target specific subdomains of the socioeconomic system where disruptive change can lead to rapid greenhouse gas emission reductions.
- The study provides a framework for understanding how contagious processes can be activated within these STEs.
Conclusions:
- Harnessing social tipping dynamics presents a promising avenue for achieving ambitious climate mitigation targets.
- Further empirical and modeling research is needed to fully understand and leverage the potential of STIs.
- Strategic interventions in energy, urban planning, finance, social norms, education, and information systems are critical for accelerating the transition to carbon neutrality.
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