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Measuring the Structure, Composition, and Change of Underwater Environments with Large-area Imaging

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Modeling migration patterns in the USA under sea level rise.

Caleb Robinson¹, Bistra Dilkina², Juan Moreno-Cruz³

¹School of Computational Science and Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.

|January 23, 2020

Summary

Future sea level rise will cause large-scale human migration in the United States. Our framework models these climate migration patterns, showing widespread, disproportionate impacts beyond coastal areas.

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Area of Science:

Environmental Science
Demography
Climate Science

Background:

Sea level rise (SLR) poses a significant threat, potentially triggering mass human migration.
Understanding the scale and patterns of climate-driven migration is crucial for adaptation planning.

Purpose of the Study:

To develop and apply a novel framework for simulating future climate migration patterns driven by sea level rise.
To differentiate between historical and climate-induced migration and assess the extended impacts of climate change.

Main Methods:

Coupling a sea level rise model with a data-driven human migration model.
Integrating future population projections to create a generalized joint model.
Simulating population distributions under various future sea level rise scenarios.

Main Results:

Sea level rise is projected to induce significant human migration across the United States.
The impacts of climate migration extend beyond immediate coastal zones.
Certain regions are disproportionately affected by climate-driven population shifts.

Conclusions:

The developed framework provides a robust method for projecting climate migration.
Sea level rise will reshape population distribution, necessitating proactive policy and infrastructure adjustments.
Addressing climate migration requires a comprehensive understanding of its pervasive and unequal effects.