Vegetation change over seven years in the largest protected Pacific Northwest Bunchgrass Prairie remnant

Temperate grasslands are one of the most altered ecosystems on Earth. Consequently, conservation of important characteristics of such ecosystems (e.g., biodiversity) is uncertain even within grasslands that have been protected. Invasion by non-native plants is considered a primary threat to intact grasslands. Here, we evaluated native and non-native vegetation composition change over seven years in the largest Pacific Northwest Bunchgrass remnant. We sampled 124 permanent plots across the Zumwalt Prairie Preserve (northeastern Oregon, USA) twice, seven years apart. With data collected from three grassland community types (xeric prairie, mesic prairie, old fields), we asked: (1) how has species composition changed over time; (2) which species showed the greatest changes in abundance; and (3) how did abundance of Ventenata dubia (the most abundant non-native species) relate to patterns of native and non-native plant abundance? Vegetation composition changed in all three plant communities. Ventenata dubia, an annual non-native grass: (1) became the third most dominant species across the study area; (2) was the only non-native that increased in abundance substantially in all three communities; and (3) was negatively related to native perennial forb cover. Relative cover of non-native species decreased in old fields concomitant with increases in native bunchgrass (Festuca idahoensis) and V. dubia cover. Increased cover of native perennial grasses and non-native annual grasses in old fields were associated with loss of bare ground, but not with reductions in non-native perennial grass cover. Native species dominated in the mesic prairie; however, non-native cover (particularly V. dubia) increased (mean cover increased from 3 to 10%) while mean native perennial forb cover decreased (from 30 to 25%) over time. Continued shifts towards non-native annual grass dominance coupled with potentially declining native perennial forbs, may challenge conservation efforts in one of the last large tracts of Pacific Northwest Bunchgrass Prairie.