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Experimental subjects do not know what we think they know.

Jared M Field1,2,3, Michael B Bonsall4

  • 1Wolfson Centre for Mathematical Biology, Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, OX2 6GG, United Kingdom.

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|January 26, 2020
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Summary

Experiments evaluating risk preferences often assume equal expected rewards. However, this study shows that subjects inferring reward distributions rarely agree on equal expected rewards, complicating interpretations of risk preferences and behavior motivations.

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Area of Science:

  • Decision-making research
  • Behavioral economics
  • Cognitive psychology

Background:

  • Empirical approaches evaluate risk preferences by comparing options with identical expected rewards but varying variances.
  • Understanding how organisms and individuals make choices under uncertainty is crucial in multiple scientific disciplines.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate whether experimental subjects inferring reward distributions agree on equal expected rewards.
  • To re-evaluate the interpretation of risk preferences and behavioral motivations in experimental settings.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of experimental designs involving choice between two options with equal expected rewards but different reward variances.
  • Theoretical examination of subjects inferring reward distributions to optimize processes.

Main Results:

  • Experimental subjects inferring reward distributions rarely achieve consensus on equal expected rewards in finite time.
  • This finding challenges the straightforward interpretation of risk preferences and behavioral motivations.

Conclusions:

  • The frame of reference of the experimental subject is critical for interpreting behavioral studies.
  • Discussions of risk preferences and behavioral motivations require careful consideration of the subject's inferential process.