Estimation of End-of-Life Hybrid Vehicle number in Japan considering secondhand vehicle exportation

Hybrid Vehicle (HV) is becoming more and more popular around the world in recent years. Japan is the biggest HV market presently, the sales of HV is actually increasing faster than the government has predicted. Meanwhile, a huge amount of End-of-Life HV will emerge in the future, and since HV consumes more rare metal (cobalt and nickel, etc.,) and non-ferrous metal (aluminum and copper, etc.,) during the manufacturing process comparing to ordinary vehicles, the proper treatment and sufficient resource recycling process is indispensable. However, although Japan government installed End-of-Life HV recycling system, recyclable End-of-Life HV in Japan cannot be grasped due to the massive exportation of secondhand HV to developing countries. Moreover, despite secondhand HV, components from End-of-Life HV such as Nickel-Metal Hydride batteries and electric motors will also be exported to developing countries as used parts. Since resource potential of these components is high and will cause pollution problem in exportation destination without proper recycling treatment, their flow should also be studied. This research aims at estimating recyclable End-of-Life HV number using actual vehicle deregistration rate in Japan while considering secondhand HV exportation trend. Moreover, the flow of previously mentioned components was also studied. Scenario analysis on the secondhand HV exportation and components' flow was further performed, and the effect of secondhand HV and components' exportation was discussed. The result shows that, only 0.11 million waste HV will be recycled in Japan in 2030 under the basic scenario and will not surpass 1 million in all 3 additional scenarios.