Decreasing Trends in Road Traffic Injury Incidence and Mortality in Nigeria: A Ten-Year Analysis

Road traffic accidents constitute a significant public health burden in Nigeria. In this study, we aim to (1) characterize the temporal burden of road traffic injury (RTI) and mortality rates in Nigeria over a decade, (2) identify regional RTI incidence, mortality trends, and high-risk regions, and (3) assess the impact of state population on injury and mortality.

We retrospectively reviewed aggregate state-level RTI incidence and mortality counts reported by the Federal Road Safety Corps from January 2001 through December 2010. We also reviewed population data from the National Population Commission. In addition to national analyses, regional analyses were performed in Nigeria's six geopolitical zones and one Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Regression analysis was also performed to determine the relationship between population and RTI incidence and mortality.

The national median RTI incidence and mortality rates declined by 53% and 75%, respectively, between 2001 and 2010. Analysis by geopolitical zone yielded the greatest increases for both injury and mortality in the FCT and the greatest decreases for both in the South-South region. The average geopolitical zone, apart from the FCT, experienced a 24% decrease in the incidence rate and a 69% decrease in the mortality rate. An analysis of variance, run to assess potential differences in RTI incidence and mortality rates by state population, yielded significant values of P = 0.0023 for injury and P = 0.0002 for mortality.

Acknowledging the potential for underreporting, a more holistic surveillance approach would generate more accurate data for future policy creation to improve clinical outcomes.