Climate change, ecosystems and abrupt change: science priorities

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Science
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Ecological research traditionally focuses on gradual change, but accelerating climate warming necessitates understanding abrupt changes in ecological systems (ACES).
• Abrupt changes in ecological systems (ACES) are rapid shifts in ecosystem states, increasing in frequency due to climate change.
• Existing theoretical frameworks for ACES require better application to real-world landscape observations for detection, explanation, and anticipation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To synthesize empirical insights from diverse ecosystems regarding abrupt changes in ecological systems (ACES).
• To identify key drivers and contingencies influencing the occurrence and nature of ACES.
• To propose research priorities for advancing the understanding and prediction of ACES under climate change.

Main Methods:

• Review and synthesis of empirical studies on abrupt changes in ecological systems across various ecosystems.
• Analysis of factors contributing to ACES, including climate extremes, multiple drivers, and ecological contingencies.
• Identification of relationships between ACES and tipping points.

Main Results:

• Ecological systems exhibit ACES in some dimensions but not others.
• Climate extremes, rather than mean climate changes, appear more critical in triggering ACES.
• Interactions among multiple drivers and contingencies (ecological memory, disturbance history, spatial context) significantly influence ACES.

Conclusions:

• Tipping points are frequently, though not always, associated with abrupt changes in ecological systems.
• Advancing the understanding of ACES requires integrating theory, observations, experiments, and models with diverse, high-quality empirical data.
• Urgent research is needed to improve the detection, explanation, and anticipation of ACES in response to accelerating climate change.