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Related Experiment Video

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Implementation of a Real-Time Psychosis Risk Detection and Alerting System Based on Electronic Health Records using CogStack
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Daily Assessment of Acute Dynamic Risk in Paroled Offenders: Prediction, Predictive Accuracy and Intervention Effect.

Zoran Vasiljevic1, Mats Berglund2, Agneta Öjehagen2

  • 1Department of Criminology, Malmö University, Sweden.

Psychiatry, Psychology, and Law : an Interdisciplinary Journal of the Australian and New Zealand Association of Psychiatry, Psychology and Law
|January 28, 2020
PubMed
Summary

Changes in five acute dynamic risk factors among paroled offenders predict criminal recidivism. Daily assessments of these stress-related factors are useful for monitoring risk, though a feedback intervention showed no effect on reducing reoffending.

Keywords:
acute dynamic riskinterventionparoled offenderspredictionpredictive accuracyrandomised controlled trialrecidivism

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Area of Science:

  • Criminology
  • Forensic Psychology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Limited research exists on repeated acute dynamic risk assessments in paroled offenders.
  • Understanding the link between changing risk factors and recidivism is crucial for public safety.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To determine if one-month changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors predict one-year criminal recidivism.
  • To assess the predictive accuracy of these dynamic risk factors.
  • To evaluate if a brief feedback intervention reduces recidivism compared to assessment alone.

Main Methods:

  • Ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors were assessed daily via automated telephony for 30 days post-parole.
  • Participants included paroled offenders.
  • One-year criminal recidivism was the primary outcome measure.

Main Results:

  • Changes in five risk factors were associated with increased criminal recidivism, even after controlling for baseline and intervention effects.
  • Predictive accuracy for recidivism was marginally accurate, with the severity of the most stressful daily event showing the highest predictive value (AUC = .690).
  • No significant difference in one-year recidivism rates was found between the intervention and control groups.

Conclusions:

  • Daily assessments of dynamic risk factors in paroled offenders are feasible and informative.
  • Changes in specific stress-related risk factors can predict future criminal recidivism.
  • The tested feedback intervention did not reduce recidivism in this study.