Daily Assessment of Acute Dynamic Risk in Paroled Offenders: Prediction, Predictive Accuracy and Intervention Effect

Few studies have assessed acute dynamic risk repeatedly among paroled offenders to investigate the relationship between changes in acute dynamic risk and recidivism in crime. The present study investigates whether one-month changes in ten stress-related acute dynamic risk factors, collected through automated telephony while the participants were still in prison and over 30 consecutive days following parole, predict one-year criminal recidivism, including its predictive accuracy. The study also investigates whether a brief feedback intervention in conjunction with the daily assessments reduces recidivism compared to an assessment-only control group. Changes in five risk factors were found to be associated with increased risk of criminal recidivism after controlling for the results in prison, the initial value after parole, and the intervention. The predictive accuracy is marginally accurate: Summary score (AUC) = .666; Level of stress (AHSS) = .644; Psychiatric symptoms (SCL-8D) = .641; Anxiety symptoms = .673; Severity of most stressful daily event = .690. No differences in one-year recidivism rates were established between the intervention group and the control group. The study shows that daily assessments can usefully be made of dynamic risk factors in paroled offenders.