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Updated: Dec 30, 2025

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Predicting in vitro human mesenchymal stromal cell expansion based on individual donor characteristics using machine
Mohammad Mehrian1, Toon Lambrechts2, Marina Marechal3
1Biomechanics Research Unit, GIGA In Silico Medicine, University of Liege, CHU - BAT 34, Quartier Hopital, Liege, Belgium; Prometheus, the Division of Skeletal Tissue Engineering, KU Leuven, Onderwijs en Navorsing 1 (+8), Leuven, Belgium.
This study uses machine learning to predict human mesenchymal stromal cells (hMSCs) expansion dynamics based on donor traits. The model accurately forecasts population doubling time (PDT), aiding cell therapy automation.
Area of Science:
- Biotechnology and Regenerative Medicine
- Computational Biology and Bioinformatics
- Cell Biology and Tissue Engineering
Background:
- Human mesenchymal stromal cells (hMSCs) are crucial for cell-based therapies, requiring in vitro expansion to achieve clinical quantities.
- Cell expansion is influenced by donor characteristics (age, gender) and culture conditions, necessitating predictive models.
- Computational modeling, particularly machine learning, can elucidate the complex relationships between donor attributes and cell growth dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a predictive computational model for in vitro hMSC expansion dynamics.
- To assess the impact of individual donor characteristics on cell expansion.
- To improve the accuracy of predicting population doubling time (PDT) during cell culture.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a dataset of hMSCs from 174 donors (age 3-64, passages 2-27).
- Applied the Random Forests (RF) machine learning technique to model cell expansion.
- Predicted population doubling time (PDT) for each passage using donor-specific characteristics.
Main Results:
- The RF model demonstrated significantly lower mean absolute error in PDT prediction compared to theoretical estimates or historical data.
- Statistical analysis revealed significant differences in population doubling (PD) and PDT across age categories.
- The youngest donor group (under 10 years) exhibited distinct PD and PDT compared to older groups.
Conclusions:
- A predictive computational model was developed to describe in vitro hMSC expansion dynamics based on donor characteristics.
- This approach shows potential for automating cell expansion culture processes.
- Understanding donor-specific factors is key to optimizing hMSC expansion for therapeutic applications.
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