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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Dec 29, 2025

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Estimate General Practitioners Active Supply in Iran: Capture-Recapture Method for Three Data Sources.

Azad Shokri1, Ali Akbari-Sari2, Mahboubeh Bayat3,4

  • 1Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Research Institute for Health Development, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran.

Iranian Journal of Public Health
|January 30, 2020
PubMed
Summary

The capture-recapture (CRC) method accurately estimated 53,630 active general practitioners (GPs) in Iran. This approach is ideal for health workforce planning and distribution, given current data availability.

Keywords:
Capture-recaptureGeneral practitionerIranSupply

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Area of Science:

  • Health Services Research
  • Medical Statistics
  • Public Health Policy

Background:

  • Accurate estimation of active general practitioners (GPs) is crucial for health authorities to determine workforce requirements.
  • Previous methods for estimating GP numbers in Iran may not fully capture the active supply.
  • This study addresses the need for precise data on active GPs to inform health planning.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To accurately estimate the active supply of general practitioners (GPs) in Iran.
  • To evaluate the effectiveness of the three-source capture-recapture (CRC) method for this estimation.
  • To provide reliable data for health human resource distribution and planning in Iran.

Main Methods:

  • A cross-sectional study was conducted using data from 2015-2016.
  • Three independent data sources were utilized: national hospital survey, health ministry's human resource database, and physicians' offices databank.
  • The three-source capture-recapture (CRC) method, employing log-linear models in STATA, was applied for data linkage and estimation.

Main Results:

  • A total of 27,048 unique GPs were identified after deduplication.
  • The CRC method estimated the total active GP population in Iran to be 53,630 during 2015-2016.
  • Significant provincial disparities in GP distribution per 1,000 population were observed, with notable variations between high-proportion provinces (e.g., Kohgiluyeh & Boyer Ahmad) and low-proportion provinces (e.g., Sistan & Baluchestan).

Conclusions:

  • The three-source CRC method is a highly effective and rapid approach for estimating active GPs in Iran.
  • Its compatibility with existing databank structures makes it suitable for the current Iranian context.
  • The CRC method offers a valuable tool for optimizing human resource distribution and strategic planning within the healthcare sector.