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Mapping global variation in dengue transmission intensity.

Lorenzo Cattarino1, Isabel Rodriguez-Barraquer2, Natsuko Imai3

  • 1MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK. l.cattarino@imperial.ac.uk.

Science Translational Medicine
|January 31, 2020
PubMed
Summary

A new global map reveals high dengue transmission intensity across tropical regions. This tool aids in assessing interventions like Wolbachia and vaccines, potentially reducing millions of annual infections and disease cases.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Geospatial modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Effective dengue intervention planning necessitates accurate transmission intensity data.
  • Existing dengue risk maps often show disease burden or endemicity, not transmission intensity.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a high-resolution global map of dengue transmission intensity.
  • To assess the potential impact of interventions on dengue transmission and disease.

Main Methods:

  • Environmentally driven geospatial models were fitted to geolocated force of infection estimates.
  • Data sources included cross-sectional serological surveys and routine case surveillance.
  • Impact of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes and Sanofi-Pasteur vaccine was assessed.

Main Results:

  • High dengue transmission intensity predicted in tropical regions globally, with specific hot spots in South America, Africa, and Southeast Asia.
  • Estimated 105 million annual dengue infections and 51 million febrile disease cases worldwide.
  • Wolbachia interventions could reduce disease incidence by up to 90%; vaccines by 20-30%.

Conclusions:

  • The developed dengue transmission intensity map provides crucial data for public health efforts.
  • Interventions like Wolbachia and vaccines show significant potential for reducing dengue burden, particularly in high-transmission areas.
  • The map is available for download to aid further assessment and prioritization of global dengue control strategies.