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Related Concept Videos

Decision Making01:20

Decision Making

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Decision-making is a fundamental cognitive process that involves evaluating alternatives and selecting among them. This process can range from simple choices, such as deciding what to wear, to complex decisions, like choosing a major in college or a career path. The complexity of the decision often dictates the approach we use, which can be broadly categorized into two types: automatic and controlled decision-making.
Automatic decision-making is fast, intuitive, and relies on gut feelings...
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Decision Making: Traditional Method01:14

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The process of hypothesis testing based on the traditional method includes calculating the critical value, testing the value of the test statistic using the sample data, and interpreting these values.
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Reason and Intuition01:37

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The human brain processes information for decision-making using one of two routes: an intuitive system and a rational system (Epstein, 1994; popularized by Kahneman, 2011 as System 1 and System 2, respectively). The intuitive system is quick, impulsive, and operates with minimal effort, relying on emotions or habits to provide cues for what to do next, while the rational system is logical, analytical, deliberate, and methodical. Research in neuropsychology suggests that the...
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Decision Making: P-value Method01:09

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The process of hypothesis testing based on the P-value method includes calculating the P- value using the sample data and interpreting it.
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Personal Choice and Fate Attributions01:19

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Some individuals interpret life events as a consequence of their personal choices and actions, while others believe that outcomes are dictated by fate or destiny. This divergence in perspective has been examined in psychological and cross-cultural studies, particularly in relation to religious faith and cultural beliefs about causality.Fate and Personal ResponsibilityPeople who emphasize personal responsibility view events as direct consequences of their decisions. For instance, breaking a leg...
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Timing and Consequences on Behavior01:08

Timing and Consequences on Behavior

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In operant conditioning, the timing of reinforcement is crucial. For animals like rats and cats, immediate reinforcement (within a few seconds) is much more effective than delayed reinforcement. For example, a food reward for a rat needs to follow within 30 seconds of pressing a bar to be effective. 
Humans, however, can respond to delayed reinforcers. We often make decisions between immediate small rewards and delayed larger rewards. This ability to delay gratification is a significant...
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Dragons, black swans and decisions.

Ben J M Ale1, Des N D Hartford2, David H Slater3

  • 1Technical University Delft, PO Box 5015, 2600, GA, Delft, Netherlands.

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|January 31, 2020
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The study examines the broad application of the "black swan" event metaphor, moving beyond its original definition of complete surprise. It explores how decision-makers can address various improbable or unexpected events, including those with some forewarning.

Keywords:
Black swanDragonKnowledgeRisk managementUncertainty

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Area of Science:

  • Decision Sciences
  • Risk Management
  • Event Studies

Background:

  • The "black swan" event, originally defined as a complete surprise, is now broadly applied to various unexpected occurrences.
  • These events range from low-likelihood possibilities to those dismissed as improbable but which materialize.
  • The challenge for decision-makers lies in allocating resources for mitigation when faced with diverse "swan" or "dragon" events.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the expanded definition and application of the black swan event metaphor.
  • To explore decision-making strategies when confronted with a spectrum of unexpected or improbable events.
  • To provide a framework for evaluating responses to events with varying degrees of predictability.

Main Methods:

  • Conceptual analysis of the black swan theory and its modern interpretations.
  • Exploration of historical and hypothetical examples of unexpected events.
  • Framework development for decision-making under uncertainty.

Main Results:

  • The black swan metaphor has evolved beyond its strict definition to encompass a wider range of unpredictable events.
  • Decision-makers face challenges in distinguishing between true surprises and events with some level of forewarning.
  • The paper highlights the need for adaptable strategies to manage diverse types of improbable events.

Conclusions:

  • Effective decision-making requires nuanced approaches to managing events that defy traditional probability assessments.
  • Understanding the spectrum of "swan" events is crucial for resource allocation in risk mitigation.
  • The study emphasizes the importance of foresight and adaptive strategies in an unpredictable world.