Does sense of threat in civilians during an armed conflict predict subsequent depression symptoms?

We aimed to assess whether peritraumatic threat experienced during a period of armed conflict predicted subsequent depression symptoms.

Ninety-six Israeli civilians provided real-time reports of exposure to rocket warning sirens and subjective sense of threat, twice daily for 30 days, during the 2014 Israel-Gaza conflict. Depression symptoms were reported 2 months after the conflict. Mixed-effects models were used to estimate peritraumatic threat levels and peritraumatic threat reactivity (within-person elevations in threat following siren exposure). These were then assessed as predictors of depression symptoms at 2 months in an adjusted regression model.

Individual peritraumatic threat level, but not peritraumatic threat reactivity, was a significant predictor of 2 months depression symptoms, even after controlling for baseline depression symptoms.

The findings imply that in situations of ongoing exposure, screening for perceived levels of peritraumatic threat might be useful in identifying those at risk for developing subsequent depression symptoms.