Interpretation of Population Health Metrics: Environmental Lead Exposure as Exemplary Case

Our objective was to gain insight in the calculation and interpretation of population health metrics that inform disease prevention. Using as model environmental exposure to lead (ELE), a global pollutant, we assessed population health metrics derived from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (1988 to 1994), the GBD (Global Burden of Disease Study 2010), and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. In the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, the hazard ratio relating mortality over 19.3 years of follow-up to a blood lead increase at baseline from 1.0 to 6.7 µg/dL (10th-90th percentile interval) was 1.37 (95% CI, 1.17-1.60). The population-attributable fraction of blood lead was 18.0% (10.9%-26.1%). The number of preventable ELE-related deaths in the United States would be 412 000 per year (250 000-598 000). In GBD 2010, deaths and disability-adjusted life-years globally lost due to ELE were 0.67 million (0.58-0.78 million) and 0.56% (0.47%-0.66%), respectively. According to the 2017 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development statistics, ELE-related welfare costs were $1 676 224 million worldwide. Extrapolations from the foregoing metrics assumed causality and reversibility of the association between mortality and blood lead, which at present-day ELE levels in developed nations is not established. Other issues limiting the interpretation of ELE-related population health metrics are the inflation of relative risk based on outdated blood lead levels, not differentiating relative from absolute risk, clustering of risk factors and exposures within individuals, residual confounding, and disregarding noncardiovascular disease and immigration in national ELE-associated welfare estimates. In conclusion, this review highlights the importance of critical thinking in translating population health metrics into cost-effective preventive strategies.