Risk estimators for radiation-induced bone marrow syndrome lethality in humans

This manuscript provides risk estimators for acute lethality from radiation-induced injury to the bone marrow of humans after uniform total-body exposure to low linear energy transfer (LET) radiation. The risk estimators are needed for nuclear disaster risk assessment. The approach used is based on the dose X, in units of D50 (i.e., the dose required for 50% lethality). Using animal data, it is demonstrated that the use of dose in units of D50 eliminates most of the variability associated with mammalian species, type of low-LET radiation, and low-LET dose rate. Animal data are used to determine the shape of the dose-effect curve for marrow-syndrome lethality in man and to develop a functional relationship for the dependence of the D50 on dose rate. The functional relationship is used, along with the Weibull model, to develop acute lethality risk estimators for complex temporal patterns of continuous exposure to low-LET radiation. Animal data are used to test model predictions.