Modelling the 1985 influenza epidemic in France

The Rvachev-Baroyan-Longini model is a space-time predictive model of the spread of influenza epidemics. It has been applied to 128 cities of the USSR, and more recently, to forecasting the spread of the pandemic of 1968-1969 throughout 52 large cities. It is a deterministic, mass-action, space and time continuous model. The model has been applied to the simulation of the influenza epidemic of 1984-1985 in the 22 French Metropolitan districts and results are presented. Estimates of the parameters of the model were made using the French Communicable Diseases Network data. These parameters are the contact rate, a, (estimate = 0.55) which is the number of people with whom an infectious individual will make contact daily sufficient to pass infection and the infectious period, 1/b, estimated as 2.49 days. The mean annual railroad passenger traffic from district i to district j varies from 0 to 1,991,000 persons depending on the districts. The computer spread of the epidemic is presented on weekly maps. Results are also presented on district charts, giving the size of district epidemics and the time of peak of the epidemic. The precision of the computer fittings was judged satisfactory by the calculated size of peak differing from the real one by less than 100 per cent, in 17 out of 18 districts, and by the calculated time of peak differing from the observed by less than two weeks in 14 out of 18 districts. Although precision could be improved with more detailed information about passenger traffic, the French use of the model has been satisfactory.