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Identification of Colombian coffee price dynamics
Angie Rodríguez1, Miguel Melgarejo1
1Laboratory for Automation and Computational Intelligence, Faculty of Engineering, Universidad Distrital Francisco José de Caldas, Bogotá D.C., Cundinamarca 11021-110231588, Colombia.
Abstract:
The daily Colombian coffee price is a chaotic signal that has emerged from a complex economic system. This work proposes to identify its dynamics by means of two models: a single multiscroll Chua system and the coupling of two of these systems. Models are fine-tuned through an artificial bee colony optimization algorithm. Results show that this approach can reconstruct the price signal in terms of several statistics and points out a way for its long-term forecasting.
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