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Using remarkability to define coastal flooding thresholds.

Frances C Moore1, Nick Obradovich2

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Social media posts reveal coastal flooding occurs at lower tide heights than previously thought, impacting over 13 million people in 22 U.S. East Coast counties. This highlights potential underestimation of nuisance flooding risks.

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Urban Planning
  • Social Media Analytics

Background:

  • Coastal flooding is a growing concern, with impacts varying by local geography and human activity.
  • Standardized, large-scale flood measurements are challenging to acquire.
  • Existing flood thresholds may not capture all instances of coastal inundation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate county-specific flood thresholds along the U.S. East Coast.
  • To utilize social media data for assessing flood remarkability.
  • To identify areas experiencing flooding below established thresholds.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of flood-related social media posts to gauge event remarkability.
  • Estimation of county-specific flood thresholds for shoreline counties.
  • Comparison of derived thresholds with tide gauge data.

Main Results:

  • Social media data successfully estimated county-specific flood thresholds.
  • Several counties, including those with major cities like Miami, New York, and Boston, show flooding at lower tide heights than official thresholds.
  • 22 counties with over 13 million residents are potentially exposed to unmeasured nuisance flooding.

Conclusions:

  • Social media offers a novel method for assessing coastal flood impacts and thresholds.
  • Current flood warning systems may underestimate risks for significant populations.
  • Re-evaluation of flood thresholds is needed for vulnerable coastal urban areas.