Can local risk of West Nile virus infection be predicted from previous cases? A descriptive study in Quebec,...

This study aimed at (1) describing the local risk of West Nile virus (WNV) infection in humans based on previous case reports and (2) investigating the spatial clustering of cases in the five most affected administrative regions of Quebec, Canada, for the 2011-2016 period.

Human WNV cases declared to the Ministry of Health and Social Services of Quebec (Ministère de la santé et des services sociaux, MSSS) were retrieved. Incidence risk by age and sex was calculated for the study period. The yearly and monthly occurrence of cases in geographical units (GUs) was described and the probability of observing cases in a GU with cases reported in the previous year or month was assessed. Moran's I was used to assess global clustering across the study area. Spatial clusters were identified by the Kulldorff scan statistic.

A total of 261 WNV cases were declared to the MSSS between 2011 and 2016 in the study area. Overall, a low percentage of GU with cases reported had additional cases reported over the next month or year. Global spatial clustering was weak but statistically significant (p < 0.05) for 2012 and 2015. For these two years, spatial clusters of high-risk GUs were identified.

Results underline the challenge of predicting the distribution of WNV incidence risk in Quebec based on previous occurrence of human cases. Ongoing research with high spatial resolution entomological data is still necessary to understand the spatial distribution of risk at a local scale.