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Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models.

T B Richardson1, P M Forster1, C J Smith1

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Climate forcings

Keywords:
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Area of Science:

  • Climate science
  • Earth system science

Background:

  • Accurate quantification of climate forcing efficacy is crucial for understanding real-world climate sensitivity.
  • Previous studies show discrepancies in efficacy calculations based on instantaneous radiative forcing.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To systematically analyze climate driver efficacies using multimodel simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP).
  • To evaluate the predictive power of Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) for global mean near-surface air temperature (GSAT) changes.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized PDRMIP simulations for a multimodel analysis of climate driver efficacies.
  • Calculated efficacies using instantaneous radiative forcing and Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF).
  • Employed fixed sea surface temperature experiments and radiative kernels for ERF adjustments.

Main Results:

  • Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate significantly from unity.
  • Effective Radiative Forcing (ERF) proves to be a better predictor of global mean near-surface air temperature (GSAT) change.
  • Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are near one for methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, with notable intermodel spread.

Conclusions:

  • No robust evidence found that sulfate aerosol location affects efficacy.
  • GSAT response to aerosol forcing is slower than to CO2 in early simulations.
  • While historical GSAT trends show no efficacy bias, intermodel spread allows for a potential ±0.4 K bias in equilibrium climate sensitivity.