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Projecting global mariculture diversity under climate change.

Muhammed A Oyinlola1, Gabriel Reygondeau1,2, Colette C C Wabnitz1

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Climate change will significantly alter marine aquaculture potential, decreasing suitable species in tropical areas and increasing them in higher latitudes. Adaptation strategies are crucial for the mariculture sector to address these shifts.

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aquacultureclimate changehabitat suitabilityscenariosseafood production

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Area of Science:

  • Marine Biology
  • Climate Science
  • Aquaculture

Background:

  • Climate change impacts on terrestrial biomes and fisheries are well-studied.
  • Mariculture is vital for global seafood, necessitating climate change impact assessments.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project climate change effects on marine aquaculture diversity for 85 key farmed species.
  • To evaluate socio-economic consequences of climate-driven mariculture shifts.

Main Methods:

  • Ensemble projections using three Earth system models and three species distribution models.
  • Analysis of climate change impacts on mariculture species richness potential in coastal and open ocean areas.

Main Results:

  • Projected 10%-40% decline in suitable mariculture species in tropical/subtropical regions.
  • Projected 40% increase in mariculture species potential at higher latitudes under RCP 8.5 by mid-21st century.
  • Average decline of 1.3% (RCP 2.6) and 5% (RCP 8.5) in mariculture species potential in existing EEZs by 2050s.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change necessitates adaptation in mariculture through species redistribution and location expansion.
  • Findings support planning for minimized environmental impacts and conflicts with other marine sectors.